T. R. Ramachandran writes in for Tribune News Service

New Delhi, April 7, 2006
With a clear directive from Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf to find an early solution to the protracted Siachen problem, the two sides have stepped up diplomatic and back channel efforts amid indications that demilitarisation of the highest and most treacherous battlefield in the world is a complex issue but not an intractable one.

When Dr Singh made this suggestion in June last year, it found an echo in Pakistan though the neighbour’s instant public reaction was to urge India to unconditionally vacate its 1983 aggression.

With the meeting of the Defence Secretaries scheduled for next month, sources alluded to some forward movement on the Siachen issue. The secret meeting between the National Security Adviser, Mr M.K. Narayanan, and Pakistan Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz in Dubai two months ago appears to have set the tone for moving forward in finding a solution to the problem.

At the same time sources drew attention to the complexities involved as the Prime Minister had affirmed there was going to be no redrawing of boundaries. The matter of Pakistan accepting and authenticating the drawing of a straight line north of the Soltoro Ridge was of critical importance. Till the actual ground position line (AGPL) was worked out, withdrawal of troops by both sides could only take place subject to certain some other parameters being thrashed out.

While India has assured Pakistan of its sincerity in striving for a solution, there is an element of skepticism as little headway was made at the last Defence Secretary-level talks between India and Pakistan in Islamabad last May.

Even if the UPA government and the armed forces are not unduly worried about losing control of Bilafond La, Gyong La or Siya La, the three passes along the Soltoro range, the key issue is Pakistan reneging on its part of the bargain and trying to gain control of these heights a la Kargil at a later stage in a demilitarised situation.

The political leadership wants to ensure that such an act will be treated as an act of war and India will be well within its right to mount an attack at any place of its choice. The armed forces can strike at any site of its calling along the 780-km LoC as these will be localised skirmishes.

The sources explained that for effective demilitarisation, there had to be a constant monitoring mechanism and meetings of Commanders to end the eyeball-to-eyeball contact.

The view of retired and senior Army officers, diplomats, academics and strategic experts is that there is no strategic significance to Siachen other than the need to guard against Pakistan’s attempts to link Karakoram Pass with the area in Shaksgam Valley which Islamabad illegally ceded to China in 1963 and through which the Karakoram highway has been built.

It will also be necessary to delineate the present positions of both sides on the ground for the subsequent demilitarisation. Without delineation it will not be possible for India to deal effectively with violations in future, experts aver.

Pramod Kumar Singh in New Delhi writes in The Pioneer on April 5, 2006

Feb 2006: NSA-Aziz agree in principle
May: Def Secys to meet
Aug: PM may sign agreement
—- The UPA Government appears to have buckled under US pressure and the persistent demands of Pakistan to completely withdraw its 4,000 strong troops from Siachen, the highest battlefield in the world.

After a secret meeting between National Security Advisor (NSA) MK Narayanan and Pakistan Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz in Dubai in the last week of February, India has agreed in principle to the phased withdrawal of the Indian Army from its positions.

The NSA is believed to have discussed the matter threadbare with Mr Aziz and also conveyed the seriousness of the Indian Government on the issue.

Well placed Government sources told the Pioneer that the finer points of this highly contentious issue will be discussed in the next round of Defence Secretary-level meeting of the two countries in the first week of May. If all
goes well, the agreement could be inked by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh when he visits Pakistan in August this year.

While the details of this visit are being worked out, the withdrawal of the Indian Army from Siachen will top the agenda.
Though Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) and Ministry of Defence are not in complete agreement as to the overall proposal, they will be forced to fall in line once the Government decides to go ahead with its demilitarisation plan.

Ever since then prime minister Indira Gandhi ordered the deployment of the Indian Army in Siachen in April 1984, Pakistan has been demanding the total withdrawal of the Indian troops. It has used every trick in its trade to hammer across its argument that Indian Army should withdraw from Saltoro Hills of NJ-9842 mountain peak.

The strategic importance of Saltoro Hills can be gauged from the fact that it takes only four days to enter into Indian territory from Pakistan’s side despite a maze of extremely narrow routes.

Indian Army had further fortified its deployment after the Kargil War much to the chagrin of Pakistan. Officers and men of the Indian Army should be complemented for having effectively checkmated any misadventures from Pakistan in this sector, the sources said.

In the event of Indian troops pulling out of Saltoro Hills, Pakistan would be able to straighten the passage between Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (POK) and Aksai Chin. Pakistan had also not agreed to accept the actual ground position line (AGPL) since it had set its eye on this strategic terrain.

Most importantly, Pakistan will never agree to authenticate its military-held positions in this area, as it wants to first seek the withdrawal of Indian Army and then exploit it for fulfilling its ulterior motives.

Apprehensions are being expressed that if the peace process between India and Pakistan gets derailed and the Pakistan Army meanwhile occupies key positions in Siachen, India will have to really move the mountains to regain its previously-held positions.